On June 2, Forbes Real...
On June 2, Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List flashed a headline: Masayoshi Son’s net worth surged to $100.7 billion, reclaiming the title of Asia’s richest person after a 12-year hiatus.
Honestly, my first thought upon seeing this news was not "Wow", but "Here we go again". The last time he enjoyed such unprecedented glory was back in 2017. Everyone knows what happened afterward: the WeWork collapse, massive losses at SoftBank Vision Fund, his personal fortune plummeting to merely $21.1 billion, and he even failed to crack Japan’s top three wealth rankings.
Yet this man never stops stirring up the market. Over the past year or so, SoftBank’s stock has skyrocketed by more than 300%, and his personal wealth has nearly quintupled from its rock bottom.
How did he pull off this turnaround? All thanks to two letters: A and I.
Two core assets lifted him back to the pinnacle.
The first one is Arm. Back in 2016, Masayoshi Son spent $32 billion to acquire Arm, a move widely deemed overpriced at the time. Following Arm’s IPO last year, its share price more than tripled, and SoftBank still holds roughly 90% of its equity. The market value of this investment now exceeds $130 billion, over three times the original acquisition cost. Anyone would be overjoyed to earn hundreds of billions of US dollars from a single investment.
The second asset is OpenAI. SoftBank has made heavy bets on OpenAI. While its exact shareholding remains undisclosed, S&P estimates that Arm and OpenAI together account for around 60% of SoftBank’s entire investment portfolio.
On the very day he cla...
On the very day he claimed the top spot among Asia’s billionaires, Masayoshi Son made a high-profile announcement: SoftBank aims to evolve into a leading global platform for super AI over the next decade, rivaling Microsoft, Google and Amazon. He also revealed plans to invest 75 billion euros in building AI data centers in France, and put forward a bold forecast many found far-fetched:
"The AI revolution will be at least 10 times, and potentially up to 50 times the scale of the internet era."
At first, I dismissed this figure as empty hype. The internet rose in the 1990s, birthing trillion-dollar giants like Microsoft, Google and Amazon and revolutionizing how humanity lives — undoubtedly one of the most spectacular chapters in business history. Fifty times larger? It’s hard to even fathom the scale.
Then I shifted my perspective: the internet fundamentally solved the problem of connection — connecting people with information, people with one another, and people with goods. AI, by contrast, addresses the problem of substitution: it replaces human intellectual labor.
An imperfect analogy: the internet laid the "water and power pipelines" for the world, while AI builds "autonomous robots that work independently". These robots can write code, design visuals, run companies and even conduct scientific research. If all this comes to fruition, the AI market will undoubtedly dwarf the internet market.
Still, I remind myself to take Masayoshi Son’s remarks with a grain of salt. Back in 2017, he claimed AI would surpass human intelligence within 30 years and even predicted the emergence of "shoes smarter than humans". He is no conservative forecaster. Instead, he is a gambler who first sets lofty, exaggerated expectations and then pours real capital to turn those visions into reality.
Therefore, the "50 times larger" claim should be interpreted as a valid long-term trend judgment, rather than an exact numerical target to be taken literally.
Here’s an awkward twis...
Here’s an awkward twist: by the time I finished writing this piece, he was no longer Asia’s richest man.
On June 4, SoftBank’s stock tumbled more than 17% within three days. Masayoshi Son lost $13.2 billion of his personal wealth in a single day, pushing his net worth down to $87.1 billion. He was overtaken once again by India’s Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani.
He only held the crown for three days.
Why such a sharp drop? Simply put, Son’s wealth is entirely tied to SoftBank’s stock price, and the company faces concentrated structural risks:
First, excessive leverage. As of the end of 2025, SoftBank’s total liabilities hit 16.3 trillion yen (approximately $104 billion). The subordinated bonds it recently issued carry a coupon rate of 4.97%, the highest retail bond yield ever recorded among Japan’s non-financial corporations — a clear sign the market doubts its debt repayment capacity.
Second, over-concentrated investments. S&P calculates that 60% of SoftBank’s assets are tied to just two holdings: OpenAI and Arm. S&P has revised SoftBank’s credit rating outlook to Negative, warning that any trouble with either asset will trigger wild swings in SoftBank’s stock price.
Third, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates. SoftBank’s massive debts are denominated in Japanese yen, so rate hikes will directly inflate its interest expenses — a severe negative catalyst for a highly leveraged enterprise.
In short, his reign as...
In short, his reign as Asia’s richest man depends not on his own will, but on market sentiment. The slightest shift in investor mood sends his net worth on a roller-coaster nosedive.
As an outside observer, I hold mixed feelings toward him.
On one hand, he possesses remarkable foresight. He invested in Alibaba two decades ago and began advocating for AI over a decade ago, repeatedly positioning himself at the forefront of transformative technological eras. On the other hand, he is recklessly bold — so much so that his moves read less like strategic investments and more like high-stakes gambles.
WeWork stands as his most devastating misstep, costing him tens of billions of dollars before he was forced to cut his losses. Many wrote him off as past his prime after that fiasco. Yet he staged a spectacular comeback thanks to Arm and OpenAI.
His fortune rides in the front carriage of AI’s roller coaster: breathtakingly glorious at the peak, and panic-inducing when plummeting downward.
Interestingly, he seems to embrace this volatile trajectory. At 66 years old, he never stops talking about "super AI", the "50x market scale" and building a global top-tier platform. There’s something almost admirable about his relentless drive — losing $10 billion in one day yet ready to borrow more capital and go all-in the next morning.
If you ask whether investors should follow his lead and buy SoftBank or AI-related stocks, here are my unrefined personal observations for your reference:
- Do not rush into positions simply chasing the "richest man" hype. As proven, the title changes hands in just three days. Investment decisions hinge on asset quality, not the founder’s wealth ranking.
- If you still wish to participate, only deploy capital you can afford to lose. Masayoshi Son can shrug off a $13.2 billion single-day loss, while most ordinary people would lose sleep over a single month’s salary wiped out.
- Pay closer attention to debt levels and interest rate movements. The pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and SoftBank’s debt refinancing schedule carry far more weight than Son’s public speeches.
A heartfelt closing th...
A heartfelt closing thought: I’m genuinely inspired watching this 66-year-old man continue to bet everything on the future. Not because he is guaranteed to succeed, but because he truly believes in what he is building. In the investment world, unwavering conviction is an increasingly rare asset.
No one can tell whether the "50x AI market" prediction will materialize. But back in 1995, anyone claiming the internet would surge 100 times over would have been dismissed as delusional.
Time will deliver the final verdict. The only sensible rule: never stake your entire fortune on a single outcome.
Full article: https://seoaiu.com/articles/ai-ri-bao